by Choking » Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:35 pm
Reliability of a naturally evolved brain.
> You countered that "since reliability is a positive evolutionary trait and would be selected for, we can say that the brain is, largely, reliable," but there is neither logic in that nor evidence for it. How can reliability come from a system that is concerned only with reproductive success.
Reliability is beneficial to reproduction. If a brain is more reliable, then it is more capable of making "good" decisions that help it survive and reproduce.
> And also remember that natural selection either selects for the entire organism or against it. It can't be selective about specific components.
Only generation-by-generation. Over the course of thousands of generations, though, specific components can easily be selected for or against, by weeding less efficient organisms out of the population.
> To claim that reason is reliable because it evolved as reliable is a circular argument. You are presupposing reliability to draw the conclusion of reliability.
Evolution evolves reliable features because evolution strives for reproductive success. Reliable sight, reliable digestive tracts, reliable claws, reliable limbs, and reliable brains. If an organ is not reliable, then it is a waste of energy. It is not 100% successful, but it will trend towards reliability as much as possible.
> Speaking with the voice of naturalism, intelligence is only helpful for survival, and only as much is needed as contributes to it.
Yes. This is why most animals are not intelligent. However, at some point, homo sapiens had such a form, and were in such an environment, that intelligence became a very helpful trait that was naturally selected for.
Requirements for Informational Data
> I think there is confusion over terms, and possibly for the sake of progressing in the argument we need to leave the "intelligence" part behind. My real point is that informational data only comes from previous informational data.
Which terms, though? I think intelligence is really the crux of the argument, but I would say that "informational data" is the only unclear term. The problem is that I cannot see a way to causally deduce intelligence from informational data, if you consider DNA to be a part of that set.
> This is not a worthy analogy. Two rabbits make new rabbits, but they're still rabbits. They have roughly the same genetic code, but always with some mutational changes. They are still distinctively rabbits with 22 chromosomal pairs. What you are claiming is that in the broad view, things resulted from components not previously in the system.
So which components am I assuming that were not previously in the system? Can you give me a few examples? As far as I can tell, I'm only assuming rearrangements of the same components, in which case the rabbit example is apt.
Rationality of a determined brain
> But it is in conflict with it. If all things were determined, then science and logic should be able to answer all questions, even regarding who will win a sporting event or how the stock market will behave. For determinism to be truly determined, all things become able to be calculated and concluded. But this is not the case. In addition, lest you are already objecting, QM is particularly indeterminate. In QM we don't get a prediction of a unique configuration for a system at a given time, but only a distribution of probabilities across many possible outcomes.
I believe these things can be calculated, given enough information. However, we don't have all the information about the psychology of the economy, the physiology of each individual sports player, etc. It's simply too much information to reasonably calculate.
Issues in quantum mechanics are a bit different, but there is no proof in QM of a deterministic or non-deterministic universe. I'd rather not get too deep into this, because I doubt either of us has a full understanding of even basic quantum mechanics, but pretty much all applications of QM in armchair-philosophy are based around fundamental misunderstandings of how the experiments work. Example: The double-slit experiment does not show that electrons are "aware" of being observed, but that they are difficult to measure, yet we get videos like this all the time.
Likelihood of Abiogenesis
> Suppose we're playing poker, and I deal myself four aces. You'd by suspicious, but possibly OK with it. But suppose it happened again. You would be angry. But I could say that given the number of cards in the deck and the random process of dealing, it's possible—which you would have to admit. If it happened a third time, you'd come after me. But couldn't I claim that given the probabilities, it was bound to happen some day? How would that explanation sound to you??
The probability of that happening is about 1 in 5.37e21. So if we were playing that many games and it happened once or twice, I would not be suspicious at all.
> You claim life and "fine-tuning" (an environment suitable for life within very small parameters) was bound to happen, but that just cries out for explanation, and we have to infer the most reasonable conclusion.
> You are contending that, given enough time, enough components, and enough trial-and-error/cause-and-effect, eventually a universe with a life-permitting set of parameters and the right sequence of events (without any guiding intelligence or purpose) would arise.
Not necessarily (although it's pretty likely, if you believe there are multiple universes). I'm saying our universe has some pretty basic building blocks, and we have about 700 million trillion planets alone. If life has a greater than 1 in 700,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of occurring on any given planet, then it's very likely that it will occur.
> Then we have to deal with what makes more sense: a universe that somehow eeked itself into balance and life despite infinitesimally (to the point of miraculous) small odds, or the universe coming from the design of a powerful, purposeful, personal cause? If there is a God, the chances of there being a universe such as ours is fairly reasonable; if there is no God, the chances of it are ludicrously small, perhaps even prohibitively improbable. Theism is more probable than naturalism.
Except that those chances are not infinitesimally small. Take a look at some estimates for the Drake Equation. We don't know everything, and our numbers are almost certainly off quite a bit, but we have a surprisingly good idea of what those chances are. At least enough to know that it's finite, and is pretty likely to happen in a large enough universe. The probability of abiogenesis is very difficult to determine, with a sample size of 1, but there are many ways to give reasonable modern estimates with our current knowledge of microbiology.
[b]Reliability of a naturally evolved brain.[/b]
> You countered that "since reliability is a positive evolutionary trait and would be selected for, we can say that the brain is, largely, reliable," but there is neither logic in that nor evidence for it. How can reliability come from a system that is concerned only with reproductive success.
Reliability is beneficial to reproduction. If a brain is more reliable, then it is more capable of making "good" decisions that help it survive and reproduce.
> And also remember that natural selection either selects for the entire organism or against it. It can't be selective about specific components.
Only generation-by-generation. Over the course of thousands of generations, though, specific components can easily be selected for or against, by weeding less efficient organisms out of the population.
> To claim that reason is reliable because it evolved as reliable is a circular argument. You are presupposing reliability to draw the conclusion of reliability.
Evolution evolves reliable features because evolution strives for reproductive success. Reliable sight, reliable digestive tracts, reliable claws, reliable limbs, and reliable brains. If an organ is not reliable, then it is a waste of energy. It is not 100% successful, but it will trend towards reliability as much as possible.
> Speaking with the voice of naturalism, intelligence is only helpful for survival, and only as much is needed as contributes to it.
Yes. This is why most animals are not intelligent. However, at some point, homo sapiens had such a form, and were in such an environment, that intelligence became a very helpful trait that was naturally selected for.
[b]Requirements for Informational Data[/b]
> I think there is confusion over terms, and possibly for the sake of progressing in the argument we need to leave the "intelligence" part behind. My real point is that informational data only comes from previous informational data.
Which terms, though? I think intelligence is really the crux of the argument, but I would say that "informational data" is the only unclear term. The problem is that I cannot see a way to causally deduce intelligence from informational data, if you consider DNA to be a part of that set.
> This is not a worthy analogy. Two rabbits make new rabbits, but they're still rabbits. They have roughly the same genetic code, but always with some mutational changes. They are still distinctively rabbits with 22 chromosomal pairs. What you are claiming is that in the broad view, things resulted from components not previously in the system.
So which components am I assuming that were not previously in the system? Can you give me a few examples? As far as I can tell, I'm only assuming rearrangements of the same components, in which case the rabbit example is apt.
[b]Rationality of a determined brain[/b]
> But it is in conflict with it. If all things were determined, then science and logic should be able to answer all questions, even regarding who will win a sporting event or how the stock market will behave. For determinism to be truly determined, all things become able to be calculated and concluded. But this is not the case. In addition, lest you are already objecting, QM is particularly indeterminate. In QM we don't get a prediction of a unique configuration for a system at a given time, but only a distribution of probabilities across many possible outcomes.
I believe these things can be calculated, given enough information. However, we don't have all the information about the psychology of the economy, the physiology of each individual sports player, etc. It's simply too much information to reasonably calculate.
Issues in quantum mechanics are a bit different, but there is no proof in QM of a deterministic or non-deterministic universe. I'd rather not get too deep into this, because I doubt either of us has a full understanding of even basic quantum mechanics, but pretty much all applications of QM in armchair-philosophy are based around fundamental misunderstandings of how the experiments work. Example: The double-slit experiment does not show that electrons are "aware" of being observed, but that they are difficult to measure, yet we get videos like this all the time.
[b]Likelihood of Abiogenesis[/b]
> Suppose we're playing poker, and I deal myself four aces. You'd by suspicious, but possibly OK with it. But suppose it happened again. You would be angry. But I could say that given the number of cards in the deck and the random process of dealing, it's possible—which you would have to admit. If it happened a third time, you'd come after me. But couldn't I claim that given the probabilities, it was bound to happen some day? How would that explanation sound to you??
The probability of that happening is about 1 in 5.37e21. So if we were playing that many games and it happened once or twice, I would not be suspicious at all.
> You claim life and "fine-tuning" (an environment suitable for life within very small parameters) was bound to happen, but that just cries out for explanation, and we have to infer the most reasonable conclusion.
> You are contending that, given enough time, enough components, and enough trial-and-error/cause-and-effect, eventually a universe with a life-permitting set of parameters and the right sequence of events (without any guiding intelligence or purpose) would arise.
Not necessarily (although it's pretty likely, if you believe there are multiple universes). I'm saying our universe has some pretty basic building blocks, and we have about 700 million trillion planets alone. If life has a greater than 1 in 700,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of occurring on any given planet, then it's very likely that it will occur.
> Then we have to deal with what makes more sense: a universe that somehow eeked itself into balance and life despite infinitesimally (to the point of miraculous) small odds, or the universe coming from the design of a powerful, purposeful, personal cause? If there is a God, the chances of there being a universe such as ours is fairly reasonable; if there is no God, the chances of it are ludicrously small, perhaps even prohibitively improbable. Theism is more probable than naturalism.
Except that those chances are not infinitesimally small. Take a look at some estimates for the Drake Equation. We don't know everything, and our numbers are almost certainly off quite a bit, but we have a surprisingly good idea of what those chances are. At least enough to know that it's finite, and is pretty likely to happen in a large enough universe. The probability of abiogenesis is very difficult to determine, with a sample size of 1, but there are many ways to give reasonable modern estimates with our current knowledge of microbiology.