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[Snacker]

Couldn't a religion start pretty easily with just a combination of charisma and deceit, or charisma and mental illness, in a tribal leader? If the community trusts a person, and that person makes supernatural claims, what is stopping other people from believing that person? What is stopping those claims from snowballing into a text, into a body of worshipers, into a religion?

All that needs to happen is for the leader to either (A) truly believe he experienced something supernatural or (B) see a benefit in other people believing his supernatural claims. There are many reasons a person would believe they were a disciple of god: mental illness, sincere confusion about some kind of event, etc. There are many reason a person would want others to believe they were a disciple of god: money, power, respect, etc.

Follow-up: If your answer to the title question is "Yes", then how can you be confident that Christianity was not contrived in that way?

[jimwalton]

Sure it could. That's why there are so many false religions. (1) There are a lot of people hungry for attention, (2) people can be superstitious and gullible, and (3) pride motivates people to deceive others for their own gain.

How is that Christianity was not contrived in this way?

1. Christianity has too many historical references to be merely contrived. If we say, "The grasshopper dances in light," that's one thing. If we say, "At 9 in the morning Jesus hung on a Roman cross by the order of Roman Prefect Pontius Pilate" that's something altogether different.

2. Christianity insists on multiple evidences that build on each other, not the musings of a person who claims to have seen or done something.

3. In Christianity many people have had experiences of supernatural events that corroborate each other.

4. An examination of the writers of the Bible shows them to be honest, intelligent, cogent men and not hallucinatory, confused, or mentally ill.

5. None of the writers of the Bible got wealthy from what they did, very few got respect, and even fewer got power. It's not a reasonable conclusion to draw about their motivations.