> So the dog is not freely deciding which direction to veer to avoid me?
We're talking about will here, not outcomes. If a dog was forced to veer in a direction against its will, (drugged, or something similar, hypothetically) it would be coerced. If it veered according to its desire, it would be un-coerced. Neither changes the result. The dog in your example decides to veer in a direction because of its will. I'm arguing it cannot change its will. The only thing that could make its will different would be a countering will that cancelled out the will to get the shoe (the countering will might be formed from training, experience, etc) and thus means that the dog's inclination would be different.
> Sometimes my thoughts are new, not arising from a previous thought. That's my experience
A difficulty with this is discerning where thoughts begin and end, and whether thoughts can arise in a vacuum. Moreover, how are new thoughts as you describe them freely willed? If they are unforseen, aren't they just random fluctuations?