> Thanks for the post and for good discussion.
You too, it's been quite interesting

> But what if these vectors don't exist, as is possibly the case before the Big Bang? In that case we are beyond the realm of scientific evidences and proofs, and into the world of metaphysical logic, scientific speculation, and philosophical and theological reasoning.
Yes, I agree. However, in the world of metaphysical logic, the rules of logic still apply. Time is still required for causation. That's a logical limit, not a physical one.
> The forces and laws exist within the system; our observations are within the system, and there is regularity and order within the system, but there is nothing that requires the impossibility of anything existing outside the system.
I'm not saying anything existing outside of our system is impossible. What I'm saying is that anything existing outside our system needs an explanation. If you want to posit "It's logically possible for a being to exist outside what we know as the Universe", then I would agree with you. However, logically possible doesn't equal real or existing. Hindu, Norse, Egyptian, Mayan, and Greek cosmology are all logically possible as well. Were you to claim "an entity does exist outside of time and outside our universe", then I will ask where, how, etc.
> Logically, what's the problem here? Why can't something supernatural and transcendent exist outside of the known universe?
Logically, this is perfectly possible. First I would ask, what do you mean by exist? Second, if this existing is being done outside the Universe, where is it being done? a Multiverse? Another universe that wholly contains this Universe inside it?
> Logic requires ultimately one of two conclusions: either the chain of causes is infinite, with no beginning of sequence at all, or somewhere back there the chain is found to be finite, caused by a first cause, capable of producing the effects that we see.
Yes, and both of these options are on the same level, logically and philosophically. You can't really say "an infinite chain is absurd, but an eternally existing being isn't" just like you can't say the opposite. If one is absurd, so is the other. The only difference is that the theist has decided to ignore this absurdity, and merely assert or define that an eternally existing being is logical.
> Why must it be personal? A causing mechanism can easily be capable of accomplishing more than the particular effect it produces, meaning that any given effect doesn't necessarily have to utilize the entire capability of the causal mechanism. An effect, on the other hand, can never be greater than its cause. We know and experience the personal in our universe, therefore the first cause had to have been personal.
I don't see how you made the case for personal here. I mean, we can accept that an effect can't be "greater" than it's cause (I would ask for you to define what greater means here).
> We know and experience the personal in our universe, therefore the first cause had to have been personal.
We know and experience the impersonal, and we have never experienced any non-human cause to be personal. Why would we assume the first cause is personal then? Assigning personhood brings up a lot of issues to complicate the first mover scenario above. If we have a personal entity, where does this personhood come from? Can this entity think? Does it have a mind? How? A personal cause is much less parsimonious than just merely a cause which could be an electron state change, or a fluctuation in energy or matter.
> When data is processed, organized, structured or presented in a given context so as to make it useful, it is called information. ... Data are simply facts or figures — bits of information, but not information itself.
According to Information Theory, this is not the case. I don't know how this is relevant, what information was passed down by an intelligent source?
> My point was that there is no example of information data that does not come from an intelligent source.
By your definition, if an alien race sends a message, this message is data, not information, and it isn't until we ourselves parse and compile this data that it becomes information.
> Oh, not one bit, and I think your analogy is misleading because your analogy aims to replicate something that exists, whereas my probability statistics are the odds from the get-go.
Exactly, odds from the get-go is what I'm discussing. those are the a priori odds. In your ball analogy, you already know the result you want to obtain (one white ball) and you know the odds of obtaining this (1/1 billion), even before the experiment begins. However, let's change the experiment a bit to introduce a few more possibilities. Let's say the net contains exactly one billion balls, and each ball is a different color. (Assume there are one billion distinct colors). You jump in, and randomly grab one. It's Cyan #3343432. What are the odds of you grabbing Cyan #3343432? One in a billion. And you grabbed Cyan #3343432 on your first try? There's a billion to one shot of you doing that!! How could you have grabbed the ball randomly? You must have known you were going to grab Cyan #3343432 and looked for it, because there's no way you could have gotten a billion to one odds grab on your first try. No way.
> Let's say now we have a net with exactly one hundred trillion balls. Likewise, each ball is a different color.
You jump in, grab a ball, and look at it. It's Aquamarine #90443. Ok, ok. Your grab of Cyan #3343432 is one thing.
However, now you just grabbed Aquamarine #90443. The odds of you reaching in and grabbing that specific ball are one hundred trillion to one. Maybe I bought your billion to one grab earlier, but now I'm expected to believe, that your grab of Aquamarine #90443, which is a 1 in 100,000,000,000,000 chance, was just done randomly?? Absolutely no way.
That's the difference between a priori and a posteriori knowledge. And that's how Hoyle's example is misleading. Because he (deliberately?) conflates a priori and a posteriori knowledge. He can further confuse the issue by assuming there are only two possibilities, the Universe, and nothingness. Hoyle would probably say "Given a net with one hundred trillion balls, all of them black except for one, which is Aquamarine #90443, what are the odds of you reaching in and grabbing Aquamarine #90443? It's a 1 in 100,000,000,000,000 chance.