by jimwalton » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:14 pm
Biblical miracles cover a broad range of definition. The one of "breaks the laws of physics" is not a catch-all. Some miracles are a matter of changing the relative time continuum (wine always comes from water, but it takes 3 months, not .3 seconds), some are a matter of timing (earthquakes were common in the region of Jericho, but one just when the Israelites blew their trumpets is a bit too oddly coincidental), some an extension of what normally happens anyway (bodies heal, bread can some from previous bread and fish from previous fish). To claim that all miracles require a breakage in the law of physics is reductionistic.
Besides, there is nothing in science to successfully prove that science is all there is. Science cannot prove that nature is a closed system, nor that the laws of physics cannot be broken. The laws of physics merely describe how things normally act given that there isn't any interference. I hit a pool ball across the table, and I can predict its velocity, its angle of reflection, and its loss of energy assuming there is no interfering force. With an interfering force, all bets are off. Classical science cannot prove that miracles are impossible, and quantum mechanics even less so.
> How do you explain, at the psychological level, why other people are so deeply convinced that they believe in the correct religion?
I'm sure you're aware of the phenomena of people seeing what they want to see and believing what they want to believe. While such confidence doesn't make things false, it doesn't make them true either. Veracity has to be established at other than the psychological level.
> Are you aware of confirmation bias as it relates to prayer?
Of course I am, but apparently you're not. Prayer is not subject to scientific inquiry, nor is it necessarily a victim of confirmation bias. If God exists, and the Bible is the revelation of him, then it's safe to assume God answers prayer. Discerning what events in life are answers to prayer and which are not can be very difficult, but claiming any answer to prayer is not automatically confirmation bias. It's always quite impossible to prove or verify that any particular event is an answer to prayer, unless it involves something so astoundingly coincidental and/or something that our current understanding of nature considers impossible, such that Ockham's Razor indicates that the simplest answer is divine intervention. But this is no longer the argument from efficacy of prayer, but rather the argument from miracles, which is a different discussion, as mentioned above.
It's true that it's very difficult to establish whether God answered prayer or not, though it would be more proper to say, "We have no idea whether He will answer any specific prayer," since one would need only ONE example (not a statistical majority, or even a statistically significant minority) to prove that he "answers prayer" (meaning "grants requests") in general. The Bible records numerous examples of answered prayers, and since the same Christians who believe that God does answer prayers believe that the Bible is the accurate record of the activity of God, it is not inconsistent for them to believe that God DOES answer prayer, though this gives them no assurance that he will answer any given (or any at all) prayer of THEIRS. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Most Christians will affirm that they have no way of knowing whether or not God will grant a particular request, and most of the ones that won't affirm that are operating under faulty theology that I have no desire to defend.
We do know that God answers prayer didactically, not empirically. Causation (of any kind) can't be measure empirically without fully isolating variables and replicating results. Revelation ( = being told by God) is the only way we know ANYTHING about what God is like or how God acts. Generally, when we affirm something as an "answer to prayer," this is not on the basis of an absence of physical/biological efficient causes, but on the belief that God works by means of those causes. In other words, we believe that prayers are answered ONLY because we first believed in a God who answers prayer.
If you want to jump to confirmation bias any time a Christian claims an answer to prayer, you have no logical ground to stand on. If you expect to prove that the argument from the efficacy of prayer is invalid, well, technically it isn't. If anyone could manage to prove that even ONE incident, ever, in the history of time, occurred as an answer to prayer, and NOT from some other cause, it would prove that God exists (or existed at that point in time), that he answers prayer, and that confirmation bias is as much a bias of accusation as it is of conclusion.
No one could ever possibly isolate all the variables at work in a particular situation subject to prayer. It's not a scientific situation. In ways it's like the weather, but more so. We can use science to predict the weather, but we will never get it absolutely perfect and flawless. There are just too many variables at play to nail it down with precision (like we can do with gravity, for instance). So also with prayer. It's impossible to have a totally and perfectly controlled laboratory environment to evaluate prayer with precision, and therefore confirmation bias is an illegitimate accusation against its efficacy.