There are many possibilities to which Jesus may be referring:
- Ps. 16.10: "because you will not abandon me to the realm of the dead, nor will you let your faithful one see decay."
- Hosea 6.2: "After two days he will revive us; on the third day he will restore us, that we may live in his presence."
- Jonah 1.17: "Now the Lord provided a huge fish to swallow Jonah, and Jonah was in the belly of the fish three days and three nights," which Jesus related to his resurrection in Matt. 12.40
- Gn. 22.4, an event that many scholars see as an allusion to Jesus' sacrificial death and resurrection.
- Gen. 40.20. Many people see multiple points of similarity between Joseph and Jesus.
What's altogether likely is that Jesus is not proof-texting. He's not necessarily claiming that 1, 2, or even 5 isolated passages predicted his death and subsequent resurrection on the 3rd day. He is more likely referring to the entire biblical narrative that reached its climax in him (a common worldview of Jesus, in his talk about the prophets, Moses, the Temple, the law, David, etc.). Jesus's perspective is that He is the pinnacle and focal point of the entire narrative from the beginning of time. In His death, God has effect new creation (Gn. 1), salvation through judgment (Gn. 6-9), revealed Himself as he truly is (Gn. 11), established the new covenant in his blood (Gn. 12-22), rescued his people from slavery to sin (Exodus), fulfilled the law (Ex. 20-24), forgiven sins (the Temple), came as the Davidic king of prophecy, ushered in the new age, and raised his people from the dead (Ezk. 37; Hos. 6.2).
The 3rd day formula is also directly related to the Jewish understanding that the decomposition of a corpse begins after the 3rd day of death. That Christ rose on the 3rd day indicates he did not undergo decay (Ps. 16.10) that is part of sinful humanity, symbolizing their sinfulness (Malachi 2.3). By rising from the dead on the 3rd day, God demonstrates that Christ was righteous (sinless) and that he had not died for his own sins but rather for the sins of others (Isa. 53.4-6). (In Jewish thought, death was the divine punishment for sin, and decomposition began after the 3rd day as evidence of that sin (Ps. 49.7-9; Job 21.19-26; 24.19-20). Jesus's resurrection on the 3rd day signified to Jewish minds that his body didn't decay, and therefore he was not guilty of sin. Jesus could be alluding to all of this in Luke 24.45-46.
It follows, then, that the 3rd day formula can refer to nothing other than a historical, physical, bodily resurrection of Jesus's corpse, contrary to what many skeptics and accusers claim—that the Gospels and Paul never claim or require a physical resurrection of Jesus. The physical resurrection of Jesus was always an emphatic part of the church's message, as confirmed by the consistency of the 3rd day claim.
The 3rd day claim also implies that the tomb of Jesus was known, and known to be empty. Mourners routinely visited tombs on the 3rd day, and never after that. The 3rd day claim affirms his burial as well as his physical resurrection.
In other words, Jesus is not necessarily look to one verse but instead to the whole package of the Old Testament and Jewish theology.