by jimwalton » Thu May 14, 2020 3:31 pm
> You don't seem to be grasping the odds of probability here. With enough instances, even the most unlikely things are bound to happen.
When probability approaches zero, it ceases to be meaningful in our context. For instance, if we just use abiogenesis as one example among hundreds. Since there are 20 amino acids that have to be present in a correct order for the replication of biomolecules, the probability of getting the first one right is 1 in 20. Duh. The probability of getting the second one correct after the first one is (1/20)^2. The shortest functional protein reported to date has 20 amino acids in sequence, while most have 100 or more. If we choose a median number (say, 50), we get (1/20)^50, equal to 10^-65, an infinitesimally small probability.
If we take our probability estimate to the next phase, we recognize that a single functional protein is not likely to be biofunctional. That is, it would take more than one biomolecule to carry out life-sustaining processes. How many would we need? The best estimates are a minimum of 250. Taking this number as our protein count, for all of them to occur together, we will make the outlandish assumption that they are all relatively short (50 amino acids). Thus our probability to have a working cell appear in the primordial soup using this rather conservative approach would be (10^-65)^250. That number comes to around 10^-16300. Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, through their own calculations using their own particulars, arrived at 10^-40000. The bottom line is that the such a small probability "could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup." If these calculations are even remotely accurate, abiogenesis is a hopeless cause.
Now that's just abiogenesis. But if we add in the probabilities for protons to neutrons ratio, the force of gravity, the speed of light, and dozens of other cosmological constants, what we have is a "probability" equation that isn't probable at all. We cannot safely say, "Hey, eventually it would happen." And we ESPECIALLY can't say that if we have only 13.5 billion years to play with. You just can't claim certainty with confidence.
> It's essentially a hypothesis, an explanation that fits existing data but ought to be tested
Fits the existing data? I am very skeptical about this claim. There is no data. It's a speculative hypothesis.
> The argument that intelligence must come from intelligence seems nonsensical to me.
Science cannot give a single example of information data that did not come from previous informational data. Even the most popular scenario—the RNA world—defies logical probabilities. It is full of biological scientific imagination and nightmarish obstacles.
Scientists admit the implausibility of the emergence of an RNA replicator from a soup of polynucleotides by a purely random process. Joyce and Orgel believe that the de novo appearance of oligonucleotides on the abiotic Earth would have been a near miracle.
And, again, that's just one factor. When we put it all together, we have to admit, "Something more is going on here."
And then you talk about lightning and gravity, neither of which are examples of informational data.
> So why should it be surprising that intelligence arose from the evolution of greater complexity in the brain
Because science can't bridge that progression. It's a god-of-the-gaps argument.
> But what does inserting God do here?
Inserting God here yields the Principle of Sufficient Explanation. Science can give only a partial and hypothetic explanation; theism can give a sufficient one.
> Just because we don't know what led to abiogenesis doesn't mean any explanation is valid.
Agreed. It certainly doesn't lead us a flying spaghetti monster.
> Firstly, something being disappointing to you is not an argument for it being wrong.
Agreed. That's why my case was not built on an emotional response.
> why does personality need to be an illusion, as opposed to it merely being what it appears to be?
I explained. But I'll go at it again for you with a fuller explanation. Again, theism has sufficiency of explanation where science does not (as fantastic as science is).
There were only three possible basic answers to the personality, personalness, "humanness" of us: (I credit Francis Schaeffer for these thoughts, just to be circumspect)
ONE. Everything that exists has come out of absolutely nothing: Nothing nothing: no energy, no mass, no motion, no personality. You must not let anybody say he is giving an answer beginning with nothing and then really begin with something: energy, mass, motion, or personality. That would be something, and something is not nothing. But it is unthinkable that all that now is has come out of utter nothing nothing. There is nothing possible about this alternative.
TWO. Everything that exists had an impersonal beginning (such as mass, energy, or motion, but they are all impersonal, and all equally impersonal). As soon as you accept the impersonal beginning of all things, you are faced with some form of reductionism, which argues that everything there is now is finally to be understood by reducing it to the original, impersonal factor or factors.
The great problem with beginning with the impersonal is to find any meaning for the particulars. A particular is any individual factor, any individual things—the separate parts of the whole. A drop of water is a particular, and so is a human. If we begin with the impersonal, then how do any of the particulars that now exist, including humans, have any meaning, any significance? Nobody has given an answer to that.
Beginning with the impersonal, everything, including humans, must be explained in terms of the impersonal plus time plus chance. There are no other factors in the formula, because there are no other factors that exist. If we begin with an impersonal, we cannot then have some form of teleological concept. No one has ever demonstrated how time plus chance, beginning with an impersonal, can produce the needed complexity of the universe, let alone the personality of man.
There are two problems that always exist: the need for unity and the need for diversity. Beginning with the impersonal gives an answer for the need for unity, but it gives none for the needed diversity. If it begins with energy, it ends with energy. Morals have no meaning as morals, for all is energy, then. But beginning with an impersonal, there are no true answers in regard to existence with its complexity, or the personality of man.
If we begin with less than personality, we must finally reduce personality to the impersonal. The modern scientific world does this in it reductionism, in which the word personality is only the impersonal plus complexity.
THREE. Everything that exists had a personal beginning. That which is personal began everything else. In this case man, being personal, does have meaning. This is not abstract. It gives a legitimate answer to humanity’s aspiration for personality.
The third choice is the one that has the most coherence and the best explanatory power.
> Language is still marvelous and fascinating.
It is. Language is another attack at the same issue, though not a scientific thread to theism. It's more logical and philosophical. This argument comes from the writings of John Baumgarder and Jeremy Lyon. If you're interested, its basic premise is that the meaning in language can only come from an intelligent source. The argument goes as follows.
1. Language is effective only if it is endowed with meaning. It can only be understood as we assign meaning to otherwise meaningless sounds or symbols. Not only do individual words have abstract meaning, but also the sequences and combinations of words can yield greater meanings.
2. Meaning is non-material; it is neither matter nor energy. The essence of meaning is entirely distinct from both energy and matter. Therefore linguistic expressions are also non-material. A bodily thing such as a dog is different from the word "dog."
3. Language therefore demands a non-material source, since it is impossible that the meaning of language has a material cause. Material causes are incapable of generating non-material effects. The laws of chemistry and physics offer no clue whatsoever that matter can assign meaning or otherwise deal with meaning at even the most rudimentary level. Atoms cannot assign meaning to meaningless symbols to form a vocabulary or to give meaning to vocabulary. Sub-point A: Mathematics is a language, and math has no material source; sub-point B. The laws of nature themselves are non-material.
4. Language therefore demonstrates that we as humans possess non-material attributes. We not only form language and attribute meaning to it, we even create our own languages (such as computer languages). Our language ability demonstrates that we possess obvious and profound significant non-material capacities within ourselves.
5. Therefore, since material causes cannot account for linguistic phenomena, the most plausible explanation for the linguistic content of DNA is an entity with mental faculties qualitatively similar to our own, but vastly superior.
6. We can reasonably conclude the possibility that God exists.
> And I don't find Christianity's purpose for us particularly fulfilling
An emotional argument really doesn't have any substance. What you find fulfilling has no pertinence to truth.
> I don't think you've convincingly demonstrated that theism is anything but a series of logical leaps to fill in gaps with anthropomorphic shapes
Of course you don't. This is no surprise.