by jimwalton » Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:34 pm
> Are you claiming that the natural process would have led to some other species other than humans had God not interfered after the creation of the universe, or that he just set the ball rolling in the beginning of time?
We can never know the "what if." I found that it's always a matter of groundless and fruitless speculation. What I do believe, however, is that God is always involved in many aspects of life, so to wonder what would have been if there were no God is like asking what oceans would be like if there were no water.
I certainly do NOT believe, however, that He just set the ball rolling in the beginning of time. That's deism, and I find it a self-contradictory theology.
> The special power isn't special or a power. It's just survival.
I had a lunch conversation a year ago with Dr. Denis Alexander, a molecular biologist at Cambridge University. Among other things, some of what he said is, "genomic variations have advantages to succeed. It’s almost as if the system was rigged to succeed. It’s not neutral, but it’s not determined either. Although the changes in the organism are “random,” it’s both conservative and ordered. Natural selection is a process involving accepting adaptations and operates to preserve the organism."
I had a conversation at the same conference with Dr. Sarah Bodbyl Roels, professor of evolutionary biology in Colorado. She told me, "Beneficial mutations do come along rarely, but again, with mutations being surprisingly frequent in populations and having long periods of time to operate—it gets the job done!"
I read an article ("Mutation Rate Variation in Multicellular Eukaryotes: Causes and Consequence") by Charles F. Baer, Michael Miyamoto, and Dee Denver. In it they answered the question "Why do we keep evolving positively?" Their 4th reason was: "4. Mutations that directly affect the mutation rate have pleiotropic effects on fitness such that fitness is optimized at a non-0 mutation rate (known as the 'cost of fidelity')...In other words, the result is better than would be expected by chance."
I could keep quoting, but you get the idea. There is something special and powerful going on; it's not just survival.
> Excluding the supernatural is science.
Here you're just wrong. Studying the natural world is science. Science has its arena, which is not jurisprudence, art, economics, theology, philosophy, and many other things. But that is no comment on those other things.
> But variation and complexity doesn't give evidence to God/design.
Not necessarily, but they can logically point in the direction of a purposeful source, and scientifically they can point in the direction of something other than randomness going on.
> Why? And why is it luck?
The Big Bang was purportedly an eruption (an expansion) at an accelerated exponential expansion of tremendous power and velocity. We have to wonder what the odds are of arriving at an orderly universe characterized by life-supporting cosmological constants in such a condition of explosive chaos.
> If any constant was different then there would be a different type of universe.
The interesting thing is that if any constant were different, there would be no life.
> Something occurring that had a small chance of occurring doesn't mean design. It just is.
Correct, but we have to infer the most reasonable conclusion. As we look at the total picture, is the best inference, "Wow, it just is!" or "something more is going on here to have ended up the way we did. When we look at causality, logic, and probability, the more reasonable conclusion is in the direction of an intelligent and purposeful source, not in a random and chaotic one where we just got lucky.
> If there are 100 people and only 1 gets a prize, each 1 of those other scenarios has the same % chance of getting the prize as any other. The fact that one got the prize doesn't indicate a miracle.
Obviously. But we're trying to infer the most reasonable conclusion. Consider this analogy from Richard Swinburne:
"Suppose a madman kidnaps a victim and shut him in a room with a card-shuffling machine. The machine shuffles 10 packs of cards simultaneously and the draws a card from each pack and exhibits simultaneously the 10 cards. The kidnapper tells the victim that he will shortly set the machine to work and it will exhibit its first draw, but unless the draw consists of an ace of hearts from each of the 10 packs, the machine will simultaneously set off an explosion that will kill the victim, in consequence of which he will never see which cards the machine drew. The machine is then set to work, and to the amazement and relief of the victim the machine exhibits an ace of hearts drawn from each pack. The victim thinks this extraordinary fact needs an explanation in terms of the machine having been rigged in some way. But the kidnapper, who now reappears, casts doubt on the suggestion. 'It is hardly surprising,' he says, 'that the machine draws only aces of hearts. You could not possibly see anything else. For you would not be here to see anything at all if any other cards had been drawn.'
"But, of course, the victim is right and not the kidnapper. There is indeed something extraordinary in need of explanation in 10 aces of hearts being drawn. The fact that this peculiar order is a necessary condition of the draw being perceived at all makes what is perceived no less extraordinary and in need of explanation. The teleologist’s starting point is not that we perceive order rather than disorder, but that order rather than disorder is there. Maybe only if order were there could we know what is there, but that makes what is there no less ordinary and in need of explanation.
The universe is characterized by vast, all-pervasive temporal order, the conformity of nature to formula, recorded in the scientific laws formulated by men. These phenomena, like the very existence of the world, is clearly something “too big” for science to explain. If there is an explanation of the order of the universe, it can’t be a scientific one.
> But "fine tuning" already indicates agency, so you're making the argument for yourself just in the wording.
The occurrence of certain phenomena raises the probability of God's existence, if and only if it is more probable that those phenomena will occur if is a God than if there is not.
To show that it is unlikely that the phenomena would occur unless there were a God, one has to show that it is unlikely that there is any complete explanation of the phenomena (e.g., scientific explanation) other than one which involves God’s agency.
The boundary conditions of our universe and the laws of its evolution are of a very special kind which alone could lead to the evolution of intelligent life and in fact make it probable. It provides a good inductive argument for the existence of God.
The basic idea is that such fine-tuning is not at all surprising or improbable on theism: God presumably would want there to be life, and indeed intelligent life with which (whom) to communicate and share love. Of course this life could take many different forms (indeed, perhaps it has taken many forms). But it doesn’t seem at all improbable that God would want to create life, both human life and life of other sorts, and if he wanted to created human life in a universe at all like ours, he would have been obliged to fine-tune the constants. On the other hand, on the atheistic hypothesis according to which these constants have their values by chance (that is, those values are not the result of anyone’s choice or intention) it is exceedingly improbable that they would be fine-tuned for life. This seems to offer support for theism: given theism, fine-tuning is not at all improbable; given atheism, it is; therefore theism is to be preferred to atheism.
> As for purposeful - what's the purpose then? To give glory to God? Then what? Is that it?
The purpose is functionality and life. The universe is functional (gravity, electromagnetic, radio waves, etc.) and the Earth is able to support life.
>> That the universe has order instead of disorder (given its beginning) points to an ordering power.
> Says who?
Logic.
> What odds? Why would it be against odds, why would we assume that life/systems would not adapt?
That such order and constants would come from an explosive expansion is remarkable enough. That life would come from a fortuitous arrangement of amino acids is staggering. That life would evolve beneficially from mutations is astounding. The list goes on and on. If we are inferring the most reasonable conclusion, the odds of what we have coming from a dimensionless singularity are so staggeringly low as to be considered impossible.
You can't even get four full houses in four consecutive games of poker without someone being suspicious.
> From what I read, life is inevitable in our system.
I don't know what you've been reading, then. The number of components that have to be in place for life to be even a possibility are astoundingly high.
> We're finding amino acids on meteors.
The problem isn't their existence but their combination to create life and DNA. Let the number of amino acids equal n. Since there are 20 amino acids, the probability of getting the first one right is one in 20. The probability of getting the second one correct is (1/20)^2. The shortest functional protein reported to date has n equal to 20, while most have n equal to 100 or more. If we choose a number in between (50), we get (1/20)^50 equal to 10^-65, an infinitesimally small number.
If we take our probability estimate the next level, we recognize that a single functional protein is not likely to be biofunctional. That is, it would take more than one biomolecule to carry out life-sustaining processes. How many would we need? The best estimates are a minimum of 250. Taking this number as our protein count, for all of them to occur together, we will make the outlandish assumption that they are all relatively short (50 amino acids). Thus our probability to have a working cell appear in the primordial soup using this rather conservative approach would be (10^-65)^250. That number comes to around 10^-16300. Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, through their own calculations using their own particulars, arrived at 10^-40000. The bottom line is that the such a small probability "could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup." If these calculations are even remotely accurate, abiogenesis is a hopeless cause.
> But what we don't do is say "God did it" as a means to stop people trying to figure it out.
Neither do I. I say "God did it" because the evidence points more towards an intelligent, purposeful creator than to solely natural processes.
> Do you suggest that scientists stop trying to find out because you have the answer?
Not at all. Science is a fantastic discipline, and worth every ounce of energy and intellect we put into it.
> then why even make the claim to begin with?
Because that's where logic and the evidence leads us.